EU paid an estimated €5.96 billion for Russian Arctic LNG in the first 6 months of 2026

The EU paid an estimated €5.96 billion ($6.82 billion) for Yamal Arctic LNG in the first 6 months of 2026.

New analysis of Kpler data by Urgewald shows that between January and June 2026, out of 140 cargoes shipped globally, 136 were delivered to EU ports. This represents over 97 per cent of all Yamal Arctic LNG deliveries. China received just 4 cargoes across the whole 6 month period.

This marks a sharp increase in Europe's role in keeping Yamal LNG running. In the first 6 months of 2025, the EU received 117 cargoes and 8.57 million tonnes. In the first 6 months of 2026, this rose to 136 cargoes and 9.97 million tonnes, an increase of 16 per cent by volume.

Over the same period, Asia bound deliveries collapsed from 25 cargoes and 1.80 million tonnes in the first 6 months of 2025 to just 4 cargoes and 282,248 tonnes in the first 6 months of 2026, a fall of 84 per cent.

Europe is not simply buying Russian LNG. It is absorbing almost the entire output of one of Russia's most strategically important LNG projects.

These payments are continuing while Ukraine faces another escalation in Russian missile and drone attacks. Several waves of Russian attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities have claimed more than 40 lives last week. At the same time the BBC reported that Ukraine had warned of a serious shortage of interceptor missiles after none of the 23 ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv were shot down. President Zelensky said the attack involved 68 missiles and 351 strike drones.

The EU's continued purchases of Russian LNG are a strategic failure. They continued when Russia tried to freeze Ukrainians through the winter. They continue now, as Russia hits civilian infrastructure with missiles and drones almost daily.

Logistics is the weak spot of Russia's LNG business

December to June represents the most operationally constrained period for Arctic exports. Yamal relies on a fleet of specialised Arc7 ice class tankers to sustain shipments through heavy sea ice.

These vessels depend on rapid turnaround at European ports. Non Arc7 tankers can typically call at Yamal only between June/July and November/December to provide seasonal support. Without EU ports, Yamal's tankers would face far longer voyages, and output would fall.

The concentration of 97 per cent of exports to Europe is therefore structural, not incidental. Europe is not simply a buyer. It is the logistical backbone of the project.

Fayard: Europe's repair link in the Yamal LNG chain

Yamal's dependence on Europe is visible not only at import terminals, but also in shipyards. Fayard in Denmark remains the last EU shipyard still servicing the specialised Arc7 ice class tankers that keep Yamal LNG moving through Arctic waters.

Urgewald analysis has shown that up to 6 Arc7 vessels could require servicing this summer, before the EU maritime services ban on Russian LNG vessels takes effect on 1 January 2027. Every Arc7 tanker serviced in Denmark risks extending the life of the fleet that carries Russian LNG to Europe and helps sustain revenues to the Kremlin.

The first of the 6 vessels, the Rudolf Samoylovich, arrived at Fayard on June 30, prompting heavy criticism from Vladyslav Vlasiuk, Ukraine’s presidential advisor on sanctions policy.

Fayard could further complicate the logistics of Russia's LNG business significantly if the company were to stop maintaining the Arc7 tankers. So far, Fayard has decided otherwise.

Sebastian Rötters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald, said:

“In the fifth year of the war against Ukraine, the EU is still helping keep Russia’s Arctic LNG sector afloat. Yamal LNG depends on a small, specialised fleet, European ports and European services to keep exports flowing. Europe continues to provide all three.

“The figures are stark. Almost every Yamal cargo in the first 6 months of 2026 went to Europe. China has largely disappeared as a destination during this period, while the EU has become even more central to the project.

“This is not happening in a vacuum. In the first half of 2026, Russia intensified its assault in Europe’s worst war since World War II, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and civilian sites on an unprecedented scale. Meanwhile, Europe continued to import more than 55,000 tonnes of LNG from Yamal every single day on average.”

First 6 months of 2026 at a glance

• 140 cargoes, 10.25 million tonnes shipped globally from Yamal LNG
• 136 cargoes, 9.97 million tonnes, 97 per cent delivered to the EU
• 4 cargoes, 282,248 tonnes, 3 per cent delivered to China
• Estimated EU payments to Russia: €5.96 billion ($6.80 billion)
• Estimated EU payments from January to March: €2.88 billion
• Estimated EU payments from April to June: €3.08 billion ($3.52 billion)
• EU bound Yamal LNG volumes rose 16 per cent compared with the first 6 months of 2025
• Asia bound Yamal LNG volumes fell 84 per cent compared with the first 6 months of 2025
• The EU received a Yamal LNG cargo roughly every 1.3 days in the first 6 months of 2026
• The EU received an average of 55,089 tonnes of Yamal LNG per day in the first 6 months of 2026

Main EU destinations in the first 6 months of 2026

• France: 51 cargoes, 3.74 million tonnes
• Belgium: 37 cargoes, 2.70 million tonnes
• Spain: 34 cargoes, 2.50 million tonnes
• Netherlands: 12 cargoes, 881,970 tonnes
• Portugal: 2 cargoes, 147,170 tonnes

Main ports in the first 6 months of 2026

• Zeebrugge: 37 cargoes
• Dunkerque: 26 cargoes
• Montoir: 25 cargoes
• Bilbao: 17 cargoes
• Gate/Rotterdam: 12 cargoes
• Mugardos: 10 cargoes
• Barcelona: 4 cargoes
• Sagunto: 2 cargoes
• Sines: 2 cargoes

January to June breakdown

Between January and March 2026, 71 cargoes were shipped from Yamal LNG, totalling 5.20 million tonnes. Of these, 69 cargoes and 5.07 million tonnes were delivered to the EU. Only 2 cargoes went to China, both in January.

Estimated EU payments from January to March reached €2.88 billion.

Between April and June 2026, 69 cargoes were shipped from Yamal LNG, totalling 5.05 million tonnes. Of these, 67 cargoes and 4.90 million tonnes were delivered to the EU. Only 2 cargoes went to China, both in May.

Estimated EU payments from April to June reached €3.08 billion ($3.52 billion).

Vessel operators and countries behind the fleet

The first 6 months of 2026 data also shows the continued role of non-Russian shipping companies in keeping Yamal LNG moving.

• Seapeak, linked to the UK and Canada through its Glasgow, London and Vancouver entities: 56 cargoes, 4.10 million tonnes, around 40 per cent of total Yamal LNG volumes
• Dynagas, Greece linked: 49 cargoes, 3.58 million tonnes, around 35 per cent
• MOL/COSCO, Japan/China linked: 35 cargoes, 2.57 million tonnes, around 25 per cent

Together, companies linked to the UK, Canada, Greece, Japan and China carried all recorded Yamal LNG cargoes in the first 6 months of 2026. This is not a purely Russian logistics chain. It remains dependent on international operators, European ports and European servicing.

A further 18 cargoes, totalling 1.32 million tonnes, involved ship to ship transfers in Murmansk with final destination in the EU. All were linked to MOL/COSCO vessels.

Notes to Editors

Data:

The first 6 months of 2026 figures are based on cargo level data from Kpler tracking all LNG shipments from the Yamal Arctic LNG project to global ports. Full dataset available on request.

Methodology and assumptions

This analysis tracks physical LNG cargo movements from the Yamal Arctic LNG project using Kpler data. Destinations are assigned based on the final recorded discharge port. Volumes are reported in tonnes, as provided by Kpler.

Estimated payments refer only to Yamal LNG volumes delivered to the EU.

The payment estimates are indicative. They are based on benchmark prices rather than contract-level prices, which are not publicly available.

TTF front-month prices are taken from Investing.com’s Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures historical data. For each month, the price is calculated as the simple average of daily closing prices.

The following price assumptions are used:

• January 2026: €35.00 per MWh
• February 2026: €35.00 per MWh
• March 2026: €52.87 per MWh
• April 2026: €45.21 per MWh
• May 2026: €47.32 per MWh
• June 2026: €44.94 per MWh

For April, May and June, prices are calculated using the simple average of daily TTF front-month closing prices from Investing.com for the relevant month.

The energy conversion assumes 13.7 MWh per tonne of LNG, in line with industry-standard ranges.

These estimates do not account for long-term contract discounts, transport costs, regasification fees or intra-EU resale dynamics. They should therefore be understood as indicative gross payments under prevailing market conditions, rather than precise transaction values.

Fayard:

Urgewald analysis published on 1 June 2026 found that Fayard in Denmark is the last EU shipyard still servicing Russian Arctic LNG tankers and that up to 6 Arc7 vessels could require servicing before the EU ban on maritime services for Russian LNG vessels takes effect on 1 January 2027. A further Urgewald statement on 2 July 2026 reported the arrival of the Rudolf Samoylovich at Fayard on 30 June and Vladyslav Vlasiuk's comments on the case.

Currency conversion:

Dollar conversions use the EUR/USD exchange rate on 9 July 2026, when the euro was trading at around 1.1443 US dollars.

ENDS