EU paid an estimated Russia €2.88 billion for Yamal Arctic LNG in Q1 2026

New analysis of Kpler data published today by Urgewald shows that in Q1 2026, the EU imported 69 cargoes of LNG from Russia’s Yamal Arctic LNG project, generating an estimated €2.88 billion ($3.33 billion) in payments to Russia.

This total was significantly inflated by a war driven spike in gas prices in March, when the monthly average TTF front month price rose from the €35 per MWh benchmark used for January and February to €52.87 per MWh in March, an increase of more than 51 per cent, following the attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, creating a windfall for the Kremlin.

The data shows that 97 per cent of all Yamal Arctic LNG deliveries in Q1 2026 went to the EU. China received just 2 cargoes in January and none in February or March. Europe remains the indispensable market for Russia’s flagship LNG project, but has so far chosen not to use that leverage.

Why winter matters

December to June represents the most operationally constrained period for Arctic exports. Yamal relies on a fleet of just 14 specialised Arc7 ice class tankers to sustain shipments through heavy sea ice.

These vessels depend on rapid turnaround at European ports. Non Arc7 tankers can typically call at Yamal only between June/July and November/December to provide seasonal support. Without access to EU ports, Yamal output would be severely reduced.

The concentration of 97 per cent of exports to Europe is therefore structural, not incidental. Europe is not simply a buyer. It is the logistical backbone of the project.

What €2.88 billion could fund: around 1,000 war drones a day
At roughly €32 million per day, EU payments for Yamal Arctic LNG in Q1 2026 could fund around 1,050 Shahed 136 drones every 24 hours, based on the widely cited Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimate of $35,000 per drone.

Sebastian Rötters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald, said:

“In the fifth year of the war against Ukraine, the EU continues to keep Russia’s Arctic LNG sector afloat. Yamal LNG depends on a small, specialised fleet and European services to keep exports flowing, yet Europe continues to provide both. The attack on Iran must not be used as an excuse. By maintaining its dependence on gas, the EU has knowingly risked another energy crisis.

“Russia’s weaponisation of gas in 2022 was a clear warning, but that sense of urgency is no longer there. Instead, gas demand has been rising, not falling, again since 2023.

“The EU’s failure to reduce demand shows how deeply the ‘bridge fuel’ myth still shapes policy. The uncomfortable truth is that this has helped keep Arctic LNG alive throughout the war. If the EU is serious about supporting Ukraine, it must cut gas demand and take stronger action against Russian gas now.”

Q1 2026 at a glance

• 71 cargoes, 5.20 million tonnes shipped globally
• 69 cargoes, 5.07 million tonnes, 97 per cent delivered to the EU
• 2 cargoes, 135,253 tonnes, 3 per cent delivered to China, both in January
• February and March: zero deliveries to Asia
• Estimated EU payments to Russia: €2.88 billion ($3.33 billion)

• Main destinations were Zeebrugge (17), Montoir (14), Dunkerque (14), Bilbao (8), Rotterdam (6)

Month by month

In January, 25 cargoes were shipped, of which 23 reached EU ports, delivering 1.69 million tonnes. At a monthly average TTF front month price of €35 per MWh, these deliveries generated an estimated €811 million in payments to Russia.

In February, all 21 cargoes shipped were delivered to the EU, totalling 1.54 million tonnes. No cargoes went to Asia. At a monthly average TTF front month price of €35 per MWh, this generated an estimated €741 million in payments to Russia.

In March, all 25 cargoes were delivered to the EU, totalling 1.84 million tonnes. With the monthly average TTF front month price rising to €52.87 per MWh, March deliveries alone generated an estimated €1.33 billion in payments to Russia.

EU gas consumption figures in bcm (based on Eurostat data)

2021 413,401.8
2022 356,376.2
2023 330,527.6
2024 332,487.6
2025 340,414.7 (estimated using NL numbers for 2024, as NL did not publish gas consumption data for 2025 yet)

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/NRG_CB_GASM__custom_4698402/default/table?lang=en

Notes to Editors

Data:
Q1 2026 figures are based on cargo level data from Kpler tracking all LNG shipments from the Yamal Arctic LNG project to global ports. Full dataset available on request.

Methodology and assumptions:
This analysis tracks physical LNG cargo movements from the Yamal Arctic LNG project and assigns destination based on final recorded discharge ports in Kpler. Volumes are reported in tonnes as provided by Kpler. Estimated payments reflect EU delivered Yamal LNG volumes only.

Payment estimates are indicative and based on benchmark pricing rather than contract level pricing, which is not publicly available. The following assumptions are used:
• January volumes priced at the monthly average TTF front month price of €35 per MWh
• February volumes priced at the monthly average TTF front month price of €35 per MWh
• March volumes priced at the monthly average TTF front month price of €52.87 per MWh
• Energy conversion assumes 13.7 MWh per tonne of LNG, in line with industry standard ranges

These estimates do not account for long term contract discounts, transport costs, regasification fees, or intra EU resale dynamics. They should therefore be understood as indicative gross payments under prevailing market conditions rather than precise transaction values. Totals and percentages may not sum exactly due to rounding.

Drone equivalence:
The drone comparison is illustrative only. It divides estimated EU payments for Yamal Arctic LNG in Q1 2026 by the number of days in the quarter and compares the resulting daily figure with the widely cited Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimate of $35,000 per Shahed 136 drone. Dollar conversions use the same EUR/USD exchange rate applied elsewhere in this release.

Currency conversion:
Dollar conversions use the EUR/USD exchange rate on 7 April 2026, when the euro was trading at around 1.1565 US dollars.

ENDS