Berlin, November 12, 2026
The EU paid an estimated €8.7 billion for LNG from Russia’s Yamal project in the first ten months of 2026, according to new Urgewald analysis of Kpler data.
With 50 days until the full EU ban on Russian LNG imports takes effect, the estimated bill has already exceeded the €7.2 billion estimated for the whole of 2025 by approximately 21 per cent.
EU ports received 12.89 million tonnes between January and October, an increase of 6.3 per cent compared with the same period last year.
Urgewald’s analysis shows that 177 Yamal cargoes were delivered to EU ports between January and October. Europe received 81 per cent of the project’s recorded deliveries by volume, remaining by far its largest market.
With the onset of the winter season in the Arctic Ocean at the end of October, the logistical challenges for Yamal LNG will increase significantly underscoring the importance of the European market to Russia’s Arctic gas trade.
The EU’s complete ban on Russian LNG imports, which takes effect on January 1, 2027, and applies to eligible existing long-term contracts, is the sword of Damocles hanging over Russia’s Arctic LNG business.
If the EU stands firm, Yamal faces tough times ahead, because without access to EU ports, Russia will export significantly less LNG at higher costs.
Since 2018, only 11 Arc7 LNG cargoes have travelled east via the Northern Sea Route between November and May. By December, ice conditions will prevent non-Arc7 vessels from reaching Yamal.
Yamal depends on specialised Arc7 ice-class tankers to keep gas moving through Arctic waters. European ports provide a nearby market, allowing vessels to unload and return to the project quickly.
October Deliveries Fall, but Higher Prices Push Up the Bill
October deliveries reached 705,591 tonnes across ten cargoes, worth an estimated €839 million.
Volumes were around 11 per cent lower than in September, but estimated payments increased by 2.6 per cent, as the monthly TTF benchmark price rose from €75.34/MWh to €86.79/MWh.
France received 70 per cent of October’s EU deliveries by volume, with seven cargoes arriving at Dunkerque and Montoir. Spain received two cargoes at Bilbao and the Netherlands received one at Rotterdam.
No Yamal deliveries were recorded at Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal in August, September or October. Nevertheless, Zeebrugge remained the largest individual EU destination across the first ten months, receiving 42 cargoes carrying around 3.1 million tonnes.
The return puts Belgium’s role back in focus as winter approaches. A quiet autumn does not remove the importance of nearby European ports to Yamal’s shipping network.
Sebastian Rötters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald, said:
“Europe’s estimated bill for Yamal LNG is racing towards a staggering €10 billion this year. These purchases help fund Putin’s war machine while Russian attacks devastate Ukraine’s cities and energy infrastructure.
“Losing access to Europe’s market will deal a devastating blow to Putin’s flagship Arctic gas industry. Longer voyages, higher shipping costs and thinner profits would leave Russia paying the price.
“With just 50 days to go until the January ban, Europe must hold the line. No retreat, no new exemptions and no lifelines for this trade. After almost five years of war, governments must finally pull the plug on the Russian LNG business.”
The EU’s ban on Russian LNG imports under eligible existing long-term contracts takes effect on 1 January 2027. Restrictions on existing short-term LNG contracts have applied since 25 April 2026. Pipeline gas follows a separate phase-out timetable.
January–October 2026 at a glance
- Estimated EU payments: €8.7 billion.
- Approximately €1.5 billion, or 21 per cent, above the estimate for the whole of 2025.
- 177 cargoes and 12.89 million tonnes delivered to EU ports.
- 6.3 per cent increase in EU-bound volumes compared with January–October 2025.
- 81 per cent of recorded Yamal deliveries went to the EU by volume.
- 705,591 tonnes, worth an estimated €839 million, delivered to the EU in October.
- 42 cargoes and around 3.1 million tonnes delivered to Zeebrugge between January and October.
- The EU received a Yamal cargo roughly every 1.7 days.
Notes to editors
The analysis uses cargo-level Kpler data, analysed by Urgewald. Figures cover completed deliveries from 1 January to 31 October 2026, with destinations based on the recorded final discharge port. Cargoes still in transit and November deliveries are excluded from the headline totals.
The figures cover Yamal LNG, not all Russian LNG or the separate Arctic LNG 2 project. The full dataset is available on request.
Payment methodology: Each month’s EU-delivered tonnes are multiplied by 13.7 MWh per tonne and that month’s TTF benchmark price. Cargoes are assigned to their final delivery month. Monthly estimates are then summed, using unrounded values before rounding the totals for publication.
The January–September price assumptions are retained from Urgewald’s previous release: January €35.00/MWh; February €35.00; March €52.87; April €45.21; May €47.32; June €44.94; July €53.99; August €61.55; September €75.34. October uses the completed monthly TTF futures average of €86.79/MWh, reported by AleaSoft.
The 2025 comparison uses Urgewald’s published estimate of approximately €7.2 billion, based on approximately 15 million tonnes, €35/MWh and the same energy conversion factor. The 2026 calculation uses monthly prices. The comparison reflects differences in prices and volumes and does not establish an all-time payment record.
These are indicative gross-payment estimates based on benchmark prices, rather than verified contract payments. They do not account for contract discounts, transport costs, regasification fees, taxes or subsequent resale, and do not measure corporate profit or net Russian state income.
