EU’s Russian Arctic LNG bill reaches €7.3 billion in just over eight months, exceeding 2025 total

Key Findings

• Estimated EU payments for Yamal LNG reached €7.28 billion by 5 September, exceeding the €7.2 billion estimated for the whole of 2025
• EU ports received 11.39 million tonnes between January and August, 10.1% more than during the same period last year
• Worldwide Yamal exports fell 3.1%, while the EU’s share increased from 78.2% to 88.9%

The EU paid an estimated €7.28 billion for liquefied natural gas from Russia’s Yamal project between 1 January and 5 September 2026.

The latest Kpler extract records 159 of the 180 completed Yamal LNG deliveries worldwide through 7 September as EU-bound. These shipments totalled approximately 11.61 million tonnes, representing 88.6% of the project’s recorded exports by volume.

The estimated value has already surpassed the €7.2 billion attributed to EU imports from Yamal LNG during the whole of 2025.

In other words, the EU exceeded an entire year’s estimated payments after just eight months and five days, with almost four months of 2026 still to run.

The comparison concerns estimated value rather than annual volume. By 5 September, EU ports had received approximately 77% of the volume delivered during the whole of 2025. Higher European gas prices during 2026, combined with increased EU-bound volumes, explain why the previous full-year payment estimate has already been exceeded.

The findings are being published two days before European leaders meet in Finland for the European Arctic Summit and as EU governments prepare to negotiate the 22nd sanctions package.

First eight months show a bumper year for Russian LNG imports

During the first eight months of 2026, EU ports received 156 Yamal LNG cargoes carrying 11.39 million tonnes.

This compares with 142 cargoes and 10.34 million tonnes between January and August 2025. EU-bound volume therefore increased by 10.1% year on year.

Over the same period, Yamal LNG’s worldwide exports fell by 3.1%, from 13.23 million tonnes in 2025 to 12.82 million tonnes in 2026.

The increase was concentrated in Europe. The EU’s share of Yamal exports rose from 78.2% to 88.9%, an increase of 10.7 percentage points.

Europe therefore received more Yamal LNG and absorbed a substantially greater share of the project’s exports, even as worldwide volumes declined.

Combined with higher European gas prices, this has already made 2026 a bumper year for Russia’s Arctic LNG trade with Europe.

August shift towards Asia did not erase Europe’s lead

The opening of the Northern Sea Route during the summer allows more vessels to carry Yamal LNG eastwards towards Asia.

In August 2026, the project’s exports were split almost exactly equally. Seven cargoes carrying 497,945 tonnes were delivered to EU ports, while seven cargoes carrying 493,855 tonnes arrived at Asian destinations.

EU-bound volume during August was 36% lower than in August 2025, when EU ports received 11 cargoes carrying 778,718 tonnes.

This seasonal shift did not reverse the wider trend. Across the first eight months of 2026, almost nine out of every ten tonnes exported from Yamal LNG were delivered to the EU.

The coming winter and the EU import ban taking effect on 1 January 2027 will be the real tests of whether Russia can sustain its current export volumes without access to EU ports.

Yamal relies on a small fleet of specialised Arc7 ice-class tankers to maintain exports through heavy ice, while short voyages to Europe allow these vessels to discharge and return to Yamal quickly.

Russia’s biggest logistical obstacle is that, from around December, the Northern Sea Route to Asia effectively closes to direct LNG shipments.

The shipping network remains heavily concentrated. Six Arc7 tankers linked to Seapeak’s Glasgow-based operations carried 65 cargoes and 4.73 million tonnes from Yamal between January and August. Greek-linked Dynagas vessels carried another 62 cargoes and approximately 4.5 million tonnes.

Together, vessels linked to the two companies handled 72% of Yamal LNG exports during this period.

Yamal LNG also continues to depend on specialist European maintenance. Fayard in Denmark is the last EU shipyard identified by Urgewald as continuing to service the Arc7 fleet. The Dynagas Arc7 LNG tanker Boris Davydov has been undergoing maintenance at the yard since 29 August.

Arctic security requires action on Russian LNG

The findings are being published two days before European leaders meet in Rovaniemi, Finland, for the European Arctic Summit on 13 and 14 September.

The summit is intended to strengthen Europe’s common strategic approach to the Arctic as the region’s geopolitical and security importance increases.

Russia’s Yamal LNG project should form part of that discussion. European money, ports, shipping companies and maritime services continue to support one of the Kremlin’s most strategically important Arctic energy projects.

Sebastian Rötters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald, said:

“European leaders are meeting in Rovaniemi to discuss security and power in the High North. They cannot ignore that EU money, ports and maritime services are helping one of Putin’s flagship Arctic energy projects enjoy a bumper year.

“Europe has paid Yamal an estimated €7.3 billion in just over eight months, more than during the whole of 2025. Thanks to the EU, Arctic LNG continues to generate billions for Russia’s war chest.

“The upcoming 22nd sanctions package must address Russian LNG, end exemptions, introduce a strict ban on LNG tanker sales and restrict the services keeping the Arc7 fleet operational.”

ENDS

Notes to editors

Publication cut-off

This release includes cargoes with a final recorded delivery date through 7 September 2026 in the Kpler data extracted on 8 September.

Only completed deliveries with a recorded final destination by the cut-off are included. Cargoes still in transit are excluded.

By the cut-off:

• 159 Yamal LNG cargoes had been delivered to EU ports
• These shipments totalled 11,611,136 tonnes
• 180 cargoes carrying 13,111,791 tonnes had been delivered worldwide
• The EU accounted for 88.6% of delivered volume
• Indicative gross EU payments totalled approximately €7.28 billion

January–August comparison

The year-on-year comparison uses the first eight complete months of each year. The full-year 2025 figure has been exceeded in estimated value, not in volume.

August comparison

Data and methodology

The analysis uses cargo-level Kpler data tracking LNG shipments from the Yamal LNG project. Destinations are assigned according to the final recorded discharge port, and volumes are reported in tonnes.

Estimated payments are calculated as:

EU-delivered tonnes × 13.7 MWh per tonne × monthly TTF benchmark price

TTF front-month prices are taken from Investing.com’s Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures historical data. Each monthly price is calculated as the simple average of available daily closing prices.

For August 2026:

• EU volume: 497,945 tonnes
• TTF front-month average: approximately €61.55/MWh
• Indicative gross payments: approximately €420 million

The September calculation uses available daily front-month closing prices through 7 September. This produces a cumulative estimate of approximately €7.28 billion, rounded to €7.3 billion in the headline.

The 2025 comparison is based on 15 million tonnes delivered to EU ports, an average price of €35/MWh and an energy conversion of 13.7 MWh per tonne. This produced Urgewald’s published estimate of approximately €7.2 billion.

The 2025 and 2026 figures use prices applicable to their respective periods. Higher market prices during 2026 explain part of the increase in estimated value.

These are indicative gross-payment estimates based on benchmark prices. Contract-level prices are not publicly available.

The calculations do not account for long-term contract discounts, transport costs, regasification fees, taxes, freight income, corporate profit or subsequent resale within Europe. They should not be presented as precise corporate revenue or net Russian state income.